by Michael J. Shapiro | March 11, 2016

Average daily rate at U.S. hotels increased by 4.4 percent in 2015, according to lodging data provider STR, short of the 5.2 percent increase projected by STR and Tourism Economics in their joint industry forecast early last year. However, according to a forecast-accuracy report just released by the companies, projections were largely accurate for revenue per available room and occupancy. RevPAR was up by 6.3 percent in 2015, just shy of the 6.4 percent projection, while occupancy, which grew 1.7 percent, exceeded the 1.2 percent predicted increase.

"In 2015, U.S. lodging performance followed our expectations toward a more sustainable pace of growth," said Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics. "Our model indicated that a slowdown in RevPAR was nearly inevitable in the context of the overall cycle."

The most significant discrepancy in the projections vs. actual results came in the luxury and upper-upscale hotel segments, where gains in all three metrics fell shy of projections. The midscale and independent hotels, on the other hand, slightly exceeded projections. The full report can be found here.